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Kalshi pulled all affiliate badges from X on Monday after the social media platform revised its commercial content policy to ban paid partnerships with accounts that post gambling and sports betting content.
X’s updated policy, issued last week, bars paid affiliate accounts that promote “gambling products and services (including lotteries, social casinos, sports betting, and other gambling-related content).” The move directly targeted a promotional tactic used by leading prediction market platforms to build community reach on the platform.
A Kalshi spokesperson confirmed the decision to Front Office Sports, citing both enforcement challenges and reputational risk:
“We’ve decided to remove Kalshi badges. People loved the badges, and it was a fun way to engage the community, but it became too difficult to police, and people often confused badged accounts with Kalshi-endorsed messages. We’ll figure out other ways to make things fun for our traders.”
The removal marks a retreat from one of the more visible grassroots marketing tools used in the prediction markets space. Kalshi had previously described the affiliate badges as analogous to “bumper stickers or team logos,” framing them as low-friction community engagement rather than formal endorsement. The company’s own spokesperson acknowledged that framing failed to hold in practice.
Polymarket Kept Its Badges Live
As of late Monday, Polymarket accounts continued to display affiliate badges despite the same policy covering both platforms. Polymarket has a separate arrangement with X, having entered into an agreement in June 2025 designating it as the platform’s “official prediction market partner.” It remains unclear whether that deal provides any exemption from the updated commercial content rules.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have faced scrutiny over affiliate activity. Issues tied to the badge programs have included the spread of fake news and racist content by affiliate accounts, with both platforms struggling to maintain control over what badged accounts were posting in their names. The X policy change formalized external pressure that had already been building internally.
X head of product Nikita Bier posted a meme depicting a utopian society captioned “The world without prediction market spam on X,” signalling the platform’s own frustration with the volume of prediction market promotional content generated by affiliate accounts.
For context on how X’s broader stance on gambling content has shaped operator behaviour, see our earlier coverage of X’s gambling paid partnership ban.
Regulatory Backdrop: CFTC vs State Regulators
The affiliate badge fallout sits against a wider and increasingly combative regulatory picture for prediction markets. The core dispute is jurisdictional: state regulators argue that sports event contracts constitute sports betting subject to state licensing, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintains that prediction markets fall exclusively under federal commodities law.
The CFTC moved to reinforce its position last week, filing an amicus brief in a case originally brought by Crypto.com now before the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. The brief stated that prediction markets fall solely within the CFTC’s authority.
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig addressed state-level challenges directly in a video posted to social media.
“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear: we will see you in court.”
The Kalshi story itself has featured prominently in this jurisdictional fight. Kalshi reported $1bn in Super Bowl trading volume, up 2,700% year-on-year, in the same period that multiple state regulators have filed or threatened legal action against prediction market operators. The platform’s rapid growth has drawn both investment interest and regulatory fire, with legal battles running in parallel across several states.
The Trump administration has signalled support for the federal approach, treating prediction markets as financial instruments rather than gambling products. Whether that political alignment translates into durable legal protection remains the central open question for operators in the space.
Source: Yogonet International
