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Prediction markets platform Kalshi announced that trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday exceeded $1 billion, representing a 2,700% year-over-year increase and setting a new daily volume record for the CFTC-regulated exchange.
Total trading volume across Super Bowl week reached $2.8 billion, reflecting growing mainstream adoption of event-based financial contracts. The platform allows users to trade on outcomes spanning politics, entertainment, financial markets, and sporting events.
Non-Sports Markets Drive Significant Activity
While the game itself generated substantial trading interest, contracts unrelated to on-field outcomes accounted for a large portion of overall volume. According to Needham analyst Bernie McTernan, four of the top seven Super Bowl-related markets on Kalshi were not tied to game action, including contracts on halftime show elements, broadcast advertisements, and celebrity appearances.
Chief Executive Tarek Mansour told CNBC that contracts on Bad Bunny’s opening halftime song generated more than $100 million in volume, while markets on guest performers exceeded $45 million in trading activity.
“It was an incredible weekend. Kalshi was the biggest brand of the Super Bowl this year, without running a Super Bowl ad, and the way we achieved that is the product,” Mansour stated.
Live Trading Activity Surges During Game
Trading volume on the game’s outcome increased significantly as the contest progressed. Pre-game volume on the eventual winner stood at $361 million and climbed to $499 million by the final whistle, as users adjusted positions based on live developments.
The surge in activity created technical challenges for the platform. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara acknowledged on social media that some users experienced delayed deposits due to heavy traffic during the game, assuring customers that funds remained secure but processing times would be extended.
Platform Expands Surveillance Measures
Kalshi has faced increased regulatory attention alongside other prediction market operators regarding potential insider trading concerns. Last week, the company announced expanded surveillance and enforcement measures designed to detect and remove accounts engaged in improper trading practices.
“The insider trading risk is very real for the stock market as well,” Mansour said. “As a regulated financial market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, we have the same rules as the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange, and we have the same mechanism of enforcement.”
The company reported conducting 200 investigations over the past year, freezing related accounts, and referring certain cases to law enforcement authorities.
Pricing Comparison With Traditional Sportsbooks
Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender noted that Kalshi offered improved pricing compared with traditional sportsbooks during Super Bowl week. The platform’s average pre-game vig, including transaction fees, measured 4.35%, approximately 3% better than DraftKings and FanDuel on average.
On tracked parlay-style combinations, Kalshi’s implied vig was 23.7%, roughly 4% better than pricing at the two major sportsbooks when excluding transaction fees, according to Bender’s analysis.
The Super Bowl period also benefited the broader prediction market sector, with sports gaming applications such as PrizePicks and Underdog ranking among the most downloaded apps during the game.
Source: Kalshi
