NFL opening weekend drives record prediction market volume

US prediction markets traded $3.17 billion on Saturday 12 September and $3.12 billion on Sunday 13 September as the NFL season opened, according to a Jefferies analyst note cited by Front Office Sports. Jefferies called Saturday the highest-volume day in prediction market history.

The Sunday figure covers the eight largest platforms. Kalshi took the largest share. The exchange handled $4.89 billion across the weekend, with more than $2.4 billion traded on each day, and set daily volume records on consecutive days.

Kalshi’s NFL volume

Kalshi’s Week 1 NFL contracts reached $590 million, the second-highest event volume in the exchange’s history, according to Jefferies. Only its 2026 World Cup winner market has traded more.

The Sunday night game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants drew $112.8 million. Among the daytime games, Minnesota Vikings against Green Bay Packers led with $39.6 million, while New York Jets against Tennessee Titans was lowest at $8.4 million.

Aldrin Research, which tracks operator volumes, put reported NFL volume across platforms on Sunday at $510.9 million, with Kalshi holding 76%. Kalshi’s NFL volume excluding combos was $388.1 million. DraftKings Predictions recorded $39.9 million in NFL volume.

Combos and college football

On Saturday, Kalshi’s college football contracts took $321.4 million, up 30% week on week, according to Aldrin. Its combo contracts, multi-leg positions that settle on several outcomes, took $1.48 billion, up 25% on the previous Saturday.

Rivals post their own highs

Polymarket traded $404 million on Sunday, per Jefferies. That was below the $532 million it averaged per day during the World Cup. Polymarket signed LeBron James earlier this month after his DraftKings deal expired.

Several smaller platforms set records, according to Aldrin Research:

• DraftKings Predictions passed $100 million for the first time on Saturday, then reached an all-time high of $139.8 million on Sunday.
• Crypto.com recorded its first day above $100 million on Sunday.
• Novig set a platform record of $66.1 million on Saturday and followed with $69.1 million on Sunday.
• ProphetX passed $10 million in a day for the first time on Sunday.

A high-scoring Week 1

Week 1 produced 791 combined points by Monday night, tying the post-merger Week 1 record set in 2012. Nine of the 13 Sunday games went over the total, 10 teams scored at least 30 points and 14 players scored multiple rushing or receiving touchdowns. The average across 16 games was 49.44 points.

The effect differs by model. Sportsbooks take the other side of customer bets, so a run of overs tends to cut their hold. Exchanges such as Kalshi match users against each other and charge fees on volume, so their revenue depends on how much is traded.

Sportsbooks and states push back

The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated on 4 September that legal wagering on the 2026 NFL season will reach $29.5 billion, flat against $29.4 billion a year earlier. The AGA attributes the stall to prediction markets and puts foregone state gaming tax revenue at more than $1.3 billion since 2025. It also reported $5.1 billion in Kalshi sports volume from users aged 18 to 20, an age group Connecticut bars from sports betting.

Enforcement arrived the same week as the opener. Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection ordered nine prediction markets to stop offering sports contracts on 10 September, naming Polymarket, Crypto.com, Novig, ProphetX and Robinhood among others. Kalshi was not on the list. Connecticut’s Attorney General is suing it separately.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argues that federal law gives it exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. Appeal courts have split on the question: the Ninth Circuit ruled on 1 September that Nevada can regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts, against a Third Circuit decision in April that went the other way.

What comes next

Week 2 will show how much of the opening weekend was a one-off spike. Genius Sports’ chief executive said this week that prediction market demand will last.

The platforms named in Connecticut now have to decide whether to geoblock the state or defend the orders during the busiest stretch of the NFL calendar. Kalshi’s Second Circuit appeal on Connecticut enforcement is still pending, and a ruling there would apply to the nine platforms named in the orders.

Source: Jefferies, Aldrin Research, American Gaming Association