Key points
- Bettors have wagered more than $220 million on the 3 November US midterms on Kalshi and Polymarket, the New York Post reported on 14 October.
- The total is more than twice the $92 million traded across the whole 2024 congressional cycle.
- More than 21,000 congressional markets exist this cycle, against 463 two years earlier.
- The Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is among the contests with the most trading volume.
Midterm election bets on Kalshi and Polymarket have passed $220 million ahead of the 3 November US vote, the New York Post reported on 14 October, citing data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC). The total is more than twice the $92 million traded across the whole 2024 congressional cycle.
Midterm election bets by the numbers
ACDC’s data shows more than 21,000 congressional election markets this cycle, against 463 involving congressional races two years earlier, according to the New York Post. Of this year’s markets, 58% focus on victory margins and 16% involve picking winners, down from 71% in 2024. Bets on outright winners still make up the vast majority of trading volume.
ACDC’s earlier analysis, published on 17 August with data through 10 August, put wagers at $133 million across 7,466 House and Senate markets on Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. The group projected that total 2026 midterm wagers could reach $1.6 billion if betting grows at the 2024 pace.
Texas Senate race
Most trading volume sits in a few races, particularly the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, the New York Post reported. Senate races in Maine, Michigan and South Carolina also draw heavy betting.
In its August analysis, ACDC found that contests in Texas, Maine, Michigan and Kentucky’s 4th district together accounted for 67% of state-level betting volume.
A few wallets drive volume
On Polymarket’s international platform, the top 1% of wallets account for 70% of congressional trading volume this cycle, according to the figures the New York Post cited. ACDC put that share at 68% in August. The August analysis also found that 10 wallets account for 17% of total volume and have bet in 426 of 470 seats, and that 80% of Polymarket markets have fewer than 100 participating wallets.
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a research fellow at ACDC, said many narrowly focused markets have attracted little trading, according to the New York Post.
Next steps
The midterm elections take place on 3 November 2026. When Reuters reported ACDC’s August data on 17 August, Kalshi and Polymarket had not responded to its requests for comment. Reuters also reported that the prediction market companies and the Trump administration describe the platforms as financial markets. ACDC, a non-profit research and advocacy group, warned in that report that markets on outcomes such as endorsements and speeches open the door to insider trading.
EpicWins has covered the commercial and legal side of the sector, including Blockchain.com’s bid for CFTC licences and prediction markets and gaming revenue. More reports are in the prediction markets section.
