Table of Contents
The American Gaming Association projects Americans will wager $3.3 billion on legal sportsbooks during the NCAA Division I Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments this year — a 54% increase over the past three years and up from the $3.1 billion the AGA projected for the 2025 tournament.
Regulated Market Confidence Drives Growth
The AGA framed the increase as a reflection of growing consumer trust in the regulated betting market. Legal sports betting is currently active in 38 US states plus Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. Missouri launched regulated sports betting in December 2025, the only new jurisdiction to enter the market since last year’s tournament.
March Madness is the highlight of the college basketball season and fans are gearing up for a month of tournament action. Fans continue to engage with legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting in record numbers during one of the biggest moments on the sports calendar.
— Bill Miller, President and CEO, American Gaming Association
H2 Gambling Capital put its own March Madness handle projection higher, at $4 billion in sportsbook volume — a 6.7% increase from last year’s tournament. The divergence between the two figures reflects different methodological assumptions, though both point in the same direction: year-on-year growth on legal platforms.
For context on how the US sports betting market has evolved, EpicWins covered the state-by-state legislative picture in February, tracking both expansion efforts and regulatory pushback heading into 2026.
Prediction Markets Not Counted
Neither the AGA nor H2 figures account for prediction market activity on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, or the prediction market verticals launched by DraftKings and FanDuel in 2025. The actual total volume wagered on March Madness outcomes across all platforms is therefore larger than either projection suggests.
The scale of prediction market engagement during major sporting events has grown sharply. Kalshi reported $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume in February, up 2,700% year-on-year, giving some indication of where prediction market handle could land during a month-long tournament with daily bracket-driven engagement.
DraftKings reported its best-ever quarter in Q4 2025, driven partly by prediction market traction, and the company had already moved to integrate its sportsbook, casino and predictions verticals under a single platform ahead of the tournament’s start.
Tournament Structure and Timing
Selection Sunday — when the 68-team fields for both tournaments are confirmed — falls today, March 15. The men’s bracket reveals at 6 p.m. EST on CBS, with the women’s bracket following at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
The men’s First Four tips off March 17-18 at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. First Round play runs March 19-20, the Second Round March 21-22, Sweet 16 March 26-27, and the Elite Eight March 28-29. The Final Four takes place April 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with the championship game on April 6 at the same venue.
On the women’s side, the First Four runs March 18-19, First Round March 20-21, Second Round March 22-23, Sweet 16 March 27-28, Elite Eight March 29-30. The Final Four is April 3 at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, with the championship game on April 5.
Bracket Unpredictability Shapes Betting Behaviour
The tournament’s appeal to bettors is tied directly to its format. Single-elimination games across a 68-team field produce upsets at every round, and bracket contests — distinct from straight sportsbook wagering — draw tens of millions of participants annually. The men’s 2025 tournament was atypical in that respect: all four No. 1 seeds (Florida, Houston, Duke and Auburn) reached the Final Four, a clean-bracket outcome that is historically rare.
Whether this year’s field produces a similar result or a wave of first-round upsets will determine how sportsbook margins play out — but the gross handle figure is unlikely to be affected either way. Bettors engage with March Madness regardless of predictability; the unpredictability is the product.
Source: American Gaming Association
