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Kalshi has chosen Brazil as its first market outside the United States, entering through a partnership with XP International that will integrate prediction markets into the financial institution’s existing investment offering.
The collaboration gives Kalshi access to XP International’s client base of more than 4.7 million customers. Initially, the service will be restricted to clients holding an international investment account with XP International’s Clear brokerage. The first markets to go live will cover financial and economic events — a deliberate starting point, Kalshi said, chosen for their potential to improve pricing efficiency and the quality of market information.
A Brazilian Co-Founder Opens the Door
Kalshi co-founder and chief operating officer Luana Lopes Lara framed the launch as a personal milestone as much as a commercial one.
“As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited for XP to be Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the US. XP is one of Brazil’s largest financial institutions; expanding prediction markets to Brazil is an important step in providing more people around the world with access to fair, safe and regulated markets.”
XP International manages BRL1.8tn in assets across its client base and offers products including ETFs, bonds and derivatives — segments into which prediction markets will now sit alongside. The distribution model positions the product as a capital markets instrument rather than a consumer gambling offering, a distinction that is already drawing scrutiny from Brazil’s betting industry.
IBJR Warns of Regulatory Arbitrage
The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) responded to the Kalshi announcement with a pointed statement, arguing that the product’s economic structure makes it functionally equivalent to a fixed-odds bet, regardless of the wrapper.
“When the consumer assumes risk conditioned to the uncertain outcome of a sporting event, we are facing a bet, regardless of the label, technology or contractual form used. Presenting these models as innovation only masks the legal risk, without changing the economic exposure.”
The IBJR’s concern is specifically about regulatory arbitrage — that operators using capital markets frameworks to offer event-outcome contracts could sidestep the obligations imposed on licensed fixed-odds betting operators, including consumer protection requirements, sports integrity rules and tax obligations.
“Allowing equivalent products to operate outside the betting regime means opening space for regulatory arbitrage, with consequences already known: unfair competition, weakening of consumer protection, threat to sports integrity and loss of tax revenue.”
The association pointed to developments in the UK and the United States as evidence that regulators in mature markets are moving toward treating prediction markets as betting products. In the UK, such products are already classified as betting. In the US, state gaming regulators have pursued enforcement actions against prediction market operators operating without licences.
A Market in Flux
Brazil’s fixed-odds betting regime officially launched in January 2025. The market generated $7bn in GGR in its first year, with an estimated 25 million active bettors — numbers that have made Brazil one of the most closely watched jurisdictions globally for operators and investors.
Kalshi’s entry comes as Brazil’s regulatory framework is still being built out. The SPA, the country’s sports betting regulator, opened a B2B licensing consultation in February 2026 covering suppliers, with the broader regulatory architecture for the sector still taking shape. The CVM, Brazil’s securities regulator, separately approved B3 — the country’s main stock exchange — to launch binary event contracts under its own framework, creating a parallel track for prediction markets within the financial system.
Kalshi’s structure, routed through XP International’s brokerage rather than through the fixed-odds betting regime, places it on that financial track. Whether Brazil’s gambling regulators accept that boundary, or move to assert jurisdiction over event-outcome contracts sold through capital markets infrastructure, is the question the IBJR’s statement is designed to press.
Kalshi reported $1bn in Super Bowl trading volume in February 2026, up 2,700% year on year, as the platform’s growth in the US has accelerated ahead of its first international expansion.
Source: InterGame Online
