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Macau’s Golden Week Traffic Approaches Pre-Forecast Ceiling
Macau recorded approximately 1.39 million visitor arrivals in the first eight days of the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday, putting the city on course to meet the upper end of official projections as the nine-day Golden Week drew to a close on February 23.
Data from the Public Security Police Force showed a daily average of around 174,000 arrivals over the period, in line with the forecast issued by the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) before the holiday began. MGTO Director Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes had projected between 1.4 million and 1.5 million total arrivals for the nine-day period, with daily figures ranging from 158,000 to 175,000.
The strongest single day came on February 19, the third day of the Year of the Horse, when 227,905 visitors entered the city. That figure set a new all-time daily record for Macau, surpassing the previous high of 226,326 recorded during the pre-pandemic Year of the Pig in 2019.
Mainland China Remains the Dominant Feeder Market
Of the 1,212,482 visitors recorded by MGTO for the first seven days of the break (February 15 to 21), mainland Chinese travellers accounted for 932,752 arrivals. A further 200,323 visitors came from Hong Kong over the same period, according to MGTO data.
The city’s border infrastructure absorbed significant pressure across the period. The Border Gate checkpoint handled 541,743 arrivals in the first seven days, ahead of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (298,996) and the Hengqin checkpoint (265,695), according to police figures.
Arrivals on the third day of the Lunar New Year were up 4% year-on-year on the same lunar calendar day in 2025, with the fifth day registering a stronger 13.3% increase. Direct comparison with last year’s overall holiday totals is limited, as the 2025 Spring Festival began on Lunar New Year’s Eve, while the 2026 holiday started a day earlier, making this the longest Spring Festival Golden Week on record at nine days.
Gaming Sentiment Positive Heading Into Q1
The visitor surge arrives against a backdrop of improving gaming sentiment in the market. A Citigroup survey conducted during the Chinese New Year period reported a 17% year-on-year increase in total wager observed across Macau’s premium mass gaming segment, alongside a 13% rise in average wager per player compared with the previous year’s holiday. The bank did not publish a GGR estimate for the period.
The result follows Macau’s record full-year tourism performance in 2025, when total visitor arrivals reached an all-time high of 40.06 million, according to MGTO. The 2025 Lunar New Year had registered approximately 1 million arrivals across a shorter holiday window, a 6.1% decline on the equivalent 2024 period, making the 2026 figure a material improvement.
Analyst forecasts for Macau’s casino revenue had already been revised upward heading into 2026, with the market’s recovery from pandemic lows continuing to track ahead of earlier projections. Las Vegas Sands, which operates five integrated resorts in Macau, posted record group-wide revenue of $3.65bn in Q4 2025, driven in part by its Macau and Singapore properties.
Holiday Programme and Infrastructure
Macau’s government ran an expanded programme of events across the nine-day break, including the Golden Dragon Parade on February 17 and 18, and three large-scale drone and fireworks shows combining pyrotechnics with 3,888 drones above Macau Tower on February 19, 23, and March 3. Six city-wide viewing areas were designated for the events.
The city’s spring programme also included the ZAPE Gallop Gala community event from February 13 to March 1, designed to link Chinese New Year and Valentine’s Day activity and drive visitor spending in local districts.
MGTO’s full nine-day visitor total will be confirmed following the close of the holiday on February 23. With the eighth-day running total already at 1.39 million and the final day typically among the stronger travel days as mainland visitors return, the outcome is expected to land within or above the 1.4 million to 1.5 million forecast range.
Source: Macao Government Tourism Office
