Brazil bans prediction markets, blocks Kalshi and Polymarket

Brazil’s government has blocked 28 prediction market platforms — including Kalshi and Polymarket — after the National Monetary Council classified event-based contracts as illegal under existing betting and financial market law.

Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the blocks at a press conference in Brasília on 24 April. Brazil’s telecommunications regulator, Anatel, executed restrictions the same day, rendering platforms inaccessible to users within Brazil by afternoon. The total reached 28 blocked platforms within days of the initial announcement.

The action followed National Monetary Council Resolution 5.298, which redefined the scope of permissible financial derivatives. The resolution excluded contracts linked to sports outcomes, political events, elections, and entertainment activities, leaving prediction market operators outside any compliant product category under Brazilian law.

No Regulatory Path Forward

Durigan confirmed at the press conference that the legal position is final. "The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not," he said.

Presidential Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior confirmed the government’s position alongside Durigan.

“We are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil. We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.” — Miriam Belchior, Presidential Chief of Staff

Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, confirmed that the regulatory framework was designed to organise specific betting categories tied to sports and online gaming, and that prediction markets had expanded in a way that resembled betting products but did not fit within those legal definitions. The National Monetary Council moved to explicitly exclude such offerings from the derivatives market in response.

Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said some prediction market platforms had attempted to enter Brazil by presenting their products as financial instruments, despite operating in practice as betting products not covered under Law 14.790.

“This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government.” — Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting

Ricardo Morishita, Brazil’s national consumer secretary, reinforced the position, stating that prediction markets are prohibited under both gambling legislation and the National Monetary Council’s resolution. He urged users to engage only with licensed platforms operating under the bet.br domain.

Enforcement Follows the Regulated Gambling Playbook

The approach mirrors the strategy Brazil has applied to unlicensed betting operators since the country’s regulated online gambling market launched in January 2025. That market recorded $7 billion in GGR and drew 25 million active bettors in its first year. <a href="https://epicwins.io/2026/01/27/brazil-betting-market-7b-ggr-25m-bettors-in-year-one/”>Read: Brazil betting market — $7bn GGR, 25m bettors in year one.

Durigan confirmed that authorities had already blocked 39,000 unlicensed betting sites and would apply the same infrastructure-level approach to prediction market platforms as new ones emerge. "Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population. Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate," he said.

When asked about specific operators, Dudena confirmed that any platform offering event-based contracts outside the regulatory framework will be blocked, including those planning entry into the market but not yet operating.

Market Implications for Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi, which <a href="https://epicwins.io/2026/02/11/kalshi-reports-1b-super-bowl-trading-volume-up-2700/”>reported $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume in February 2026, representing a 2,700% increase year-on-year, had been publicly examining Brazil as a potential market. The National Monetary Council resolution closes that path under the current legal framework. Polymarket was also among the 28 platforms blocked.

Resolution 5.298 operates at the level of instrument definition. By requiring all permissible derivative contracts to be tied to objective economic variables — such as interest rates or currency movements — the National Monetary Council eliminated the structural possibility of packaging event-based outcomes as financial products, regardless of how a product is presented. Platforms that cleared a derivatives registration path comparable to the CFTC route Kalshi navigated in the United States face a different situation in Brazil: the instruments themselves are now excluded, not merely the operators.

Global Divergence Widens

Brazil’s decision adds to a fragmented international picture for prediction markets. <a href="https://epicwins.io/2026/02/17/new-zealand-declares-prediction-markets-illegal-as-15-online-casino-licences-move-forward/”>New Zealand declared prediction markets illegal in February 2026. The United States has moved in the opposite direction: DraftKings launched its prediction markets platform across 38 states in December 2025 after securing federal approvals, and Kalshi surpassed DraftKings and FanDuel in app downloads ahead of Super Bowl LX.

For operators building cross-border prediction market models, Brazil’s position carries weight beyond its jurisdictional reach. It is the largest regulated gambling market in Latin America by volume, and the government has demonstrated consistent willingness to enforce hard regulatory boundaries at infrastructure level through Anatel. Durigan did not indicate any route to future authorisation, describing prediction market products as outside the scope of Brazilian gambling legislation without qualification.

Source: Brazilian Ministry of Finance / National Monetary Council