New Zealand Declares Prediction Markets Illegal as 15 Online Casino Licences Move Forward

Prediction Markets Flagged as Unauthorised Operators

The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has determined that prediction market operators, including US-based platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, are not authorised to offer their services to New Zealand residents under current gambling law. The regulator has classified these platforms’ offerings as gambling products, placing them in breach of existing legislation.

“Since they aren’t authorized operators, they are prohibited from offering their gambling products to people in this country. To the extent these platforms are taking bets from New Zealand customers, they are breaching the law here and can expect to hear from us.”

Vicki Scott, Gambling Director, Department of Internal Affairs

At the time of the ruling, the DIA had not formally notified either Polymarket or Kalshi of its determination. New Zealand does not currently geoblock gambling websites, and neither platform lists New Zealand among its restricted jurisdictions — meaning both remain accessible to residents unless the platforms independently implement blocks.

Online Casino Licensing Advances in Parallel

The DIA’s enforcement stance on prediction markets comes as New Zealand’s Parliament continues deliberations on the Online Casino Gambling Bill, which would establish an auction process for up to 15 online casino licences. Operators have already been invited to register ahead of the planned launch.

Online wagering in New Zealand currently operates under a monopoly structure, with all services running exclusively through the TAB platform following Entain’s takeover of its day-to-day operations. The proposed legislation distinguishes between online wagering and online casinos — a framework established when the Entain arrangement was formalised.

Prediction market platforms, which offer contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events including sports, are likely to fall outside the scope of the legislative framework tied to that current structure, complicating the regulatory picture further.

Australia’s Crackdown Sets Regional Precedent

New Zealand’s position mirrors recent enforcement action in Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) concluded earlier this month that prediction market platforms constitute gambling under Australian law, a determination made following a freedom of information request filed by Crikey.

In Australia’s case, Polymarket was subsequently banned from operating in the country, with internet service providers directed to block access to the platform for Australian residents. ACMA found that Polymarket had failed to block Australian IP addresses; staff members accessed the site without location verification and were able to place bets. The regulator recorded approximately 1.9 million visits to the platform from Australia between November 2024 and May 2025. Access restrictions are in place, though some Australian users continue to reach the platform through VPNs.

The parallel regulatory positions in both countries place Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar prediction market operators under scrutiny across two jurisdictions simultaneously, while New Zealand presses ahead with a broader reform of its online casino licensing regime.

Source: Department of Internal Affairs (New Zealand)