Super Group weighs buyback as Africa nears half of revenue

Super Group has discussed a potential share repurchase with analysts, holding $548 million in cash and no debt at the end of the second quarter of 2026.

No formal buyback programme has been announced. Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender, who met management, estimates that a repurchase of around $350 million would retire close to 5% of the shares outstanding. Citizens has a $19 price target on the stock.

Super Group already returns cash through a quarterly dividend, which yields 1.45%, and has paid three special dividends in recent quarters. It paid $218 million to shareholders over the past 12 months, including $177 million of dividends to parent equity holders in the first half of 2026.

A record quarter built the cash position

Revenue reached $684 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 18% from $579 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to $204 million, a 30% margin, and net income was $123 million against a $3 million loss in the same quarter of 2025. Monthly active customers reached 6.2 million, up 13% year on year.

Super Group raised full-year 2026 guidance on the back of the quarter, to revenue above $2.6 billion from above $2.55 billion, and adjusted EBITDA above $710 million from above $680 million. Cash and cash equivalents rose to $548 million at 30 June 2026 from $513 million at 31 December 2025, after $248 million of operating cash inflow in the first half. The company carries no debt.

Africa supplies 46% of revenue

Africa produced $310 million of revenue in the second quarter, 46% of reportable segment revenue, up from $228 million and 40% a year earlier. iGaming accounted for $202 million of the African total and sportsbook for $108 million. Across the first half, African revenue was $577 million, a 34% increase on $429 million, and 45% of group revenue for the period.

The region is also the more profitable one. African adjusted EBITDA was $133 million in the second quarter, up 48% from $90 million, and $231 million for the first half against $171 million. Bender puts the trailing 12-month EBITDA margin in Africa at 36%, above the rest of the business.

Super Group operates in eight African countries through Betway, with a Namibia launch planned for the fourth quarter and Kenya under consideration. The company has been building out local payment infrastructure alongside the market entries, including a rand-denominated stablecoin for Betway South Africa deposits and withdrawals launched in November 2025.

“Africa’s revenue mix could approach 60% by 2028, which carries higher EBITDA margins compared with the remainder of the business,” Bender wrote.

The iGaming mix behind the margin case

iGaming accounts for roughly 80% of group revenue. Betway is 66% iGaming and Spin is entirely iGaming, a split that leaves Super Group less exposed to sportsbook margin swings than operators built around betting volume.

“iGaming-first operators have found iGaming customers to be significantly more valuable vs. sports bettors, boding well for the outlook,” Bender wrote.

That mix is partly the result of retreating from the United States. Super Group exited US iGaming in 2025, having already withdrawn from US sports betting, and redirected spending towards Africa and its international online casino base. The second quarter also carried FIFA World Cup activity, which lifted deposits and wagering across both verticals.

What happens next

The buyback remains a conversation rather than a commitment, and the board has not set out how it would balance a repurchase against the dividend and special dividends it has favoured so far. With $548 million of cash, no debt and guidance now above $2.6 billion, the capital question is what to do with the surplus rather than whether one exists.

The concentration risk sits on the other side of the ledger. Africa is already close to half of revenue and Bender expects it to approach 60% within two years, which ties an increasing share of group earnings to markets where regulation is still being written. South Africa’s National Gambling Board has been tightening enforcement, including an operator verification portal launched in April 2026 to let players check licensing status. The Namibia launch in the fourth quarter and any move into Kenya will show how quickly Super Group intends to widen that base.

Source: Citizens Equity Research