Macau May GGR Forecast at MOP22.6bn, Up 6.6% — CLSA

CLSA has set its forecast for Macau’s May 2026 gross gaming revenue at MOP22.6 billion (US$2.80 billion), up 6.6% year-on-year, following floor checks at six Cotai casino resorts during the Labour Day Golden Week holiday. Seaport Research Partners is more bullish, calling for an 8.5% year-on-year increase.

Golden Week Floor Checks

CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang visited Galaxy Macau, The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, MGM Cotai, City of Dreams, and Wynn Palace on 2 May. Mass market minimum bets were running at HKD1,000 to HKD2,000 per hand, with higher-limit areas requiring up to HKD5,000. Two tables at City of Dreams were observed carrying a HKD10,000 minimum.

Macau logged 632,951 visitors between 1 and 3 May — the opening three days of the Labour Day holiday period — up 5.0% on the same days in 2025.

MGM China and City of Dreams introduced new peripheral betting options during the holiday. Kiang noted newly-launched side bets ‘Monkey no Monkey’ and ‘Pairs+’ at Cotai properties including MGM Cotai and City of Dreams. CLSA acknowledged player adaptation may take time but believes a more diversified game range will structurally improve casino win rates over the longer term.

Post-Holiday Demand Outlook

CLSA’s MOP22.6 billion forecast implies an average daily GGR of MOP729 million — in line with the MOP22.61 billion recorded in March 2026. As previously reported, analyst confidence in Macau’s recovery trajectory had already been rising heading into 2026.

April GGR fell 12.0% sequentially from March but was up 5.5% year-on-year. Kiang pointed to a “rising propensity” for premium-mass segment gamblers to travel to Macau during off-peak weeks, and said a strong tail end of roughly a week following the May holidays is possible.

Seaport Takes a More Optimistic View

Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, issued a separate note after the April GGR release calling for a more aggressive outcome.

“We forecast May GGR to increase 8.5 percent year-on-year.” — Vitaly Umansky, Senior Analyst, Seaport Research Partners

Seaport’s projection implies a higher daily run rate than CLSA’s MOP729 million base case. Both firms acknowledge, though, that May marks the start of a more challenging period for year-on-year comparisons. Umansky has warned that the second quarter “faces more difficult year-on-year comparisons, starting in May,” and that Macau will experience a “material growth deceleration for the rest of 2026.”

Stock Ratings

CLSA maintained Outperform ratings on four of the six Macau concessionaires after its Golden Week visit. Galaxy Entertainment carries a target price of HKD47.4, MGM China HKD19.2, Sands China HKD20, and Melco Resorts USD8.5. Sands China’s parent, Las Vegas Sands, reported record quarterly revenue of $3.65 billion in Q4 2025. Wynn Macau was rated Hold at a target of HKD5.7. SJM Holdings received an Underperform rating with a target price of HKD1.7.

CLSA assessed the sector’s current EV/EBITDA multiple at approximately 8.9x — undemanding relative to a normalised average of 11x to 12x.

Margin Pressure Offsets Top-Line Momentum

The May forecast arrives against a Q1 2026 backdrop in which market-wide GGR rose 14.2% year-on-year while industry-wide EBITDA gained approximately 9%, leaving margins roughly 30 basis points below the prior-year period.

Seaport attributed the gap to persistent reinvestment and agent commission costs. Umansky said operating expense growth of 6% to 7% is expected for full-year 2026 — a moderation from 2025 — but that player reinvestment and agent commissions remain high, with no near-term improvement in sight.

CLSA held its full-year 2026 GGR forecast at MOP260 billion (US$32.2 billion), up 5% year-on-year. That sits at the lower end of a market consensus range of 5% to 8%. Kiang cited softer industrial profitability in mainland China as a reason not to raise the number despite a strong first quarter, and noted continued reliance on premium players while broader participation remains softer.

Source: GGRAsia, CLSA, Seaport Research Partners