Flutter Q1 revenue up 17% as analysts hold Buy ratings

Flutter Entertainment posted Q1 2026 revenue of $4.304bn, up 17% year-on-year, with most covering analysts maintaining Buy ratings despite a 22% drop in adjusted earnings per share and a downward revision to full-year guidance.

Q1 Results: Revenue Up, Margins Down

Group revenue reached $4.304bn in Q1 2026, compared with $3.665bn in the same period of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA grew 2% to $631m, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining 210 basis points to 14.7%. Net income fell 38% to $209m. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.22, down 23% year-on-year.

Average monthly players dropped 3% to 14.378 million, reflecting the closure of the Indian market in 2025.

The US segment produced revenue of $1.763bn, up 6%. Sportsbook revenue grew 1% year-on-year, with FanDuel exiting Q4 2025 with a smaller customer base than anticipated following Q4’s customer churn. iGaming revenue was up 19%, driven by direct casino engagement and AMP growth of 10%. For context on broader US operator performance, BetMGM reported record full-year 2025 revenue of $2.8bn, while DraftKings posted its best quarter on record in Q4 yet saw its stock fall sharply — a dynamic that has become familiar across US iGaming equities.

International revenue reached $2.541bn, up 27% year-on-year in reported terms and 18% in constant currency, boosted by the Snai acquisition in Italy and Betnacional in Brazil. On an organic basis, International revenue was flat year-on-year, with unfavorable sports results in the UK, Ireland, and Southeast Asia offsetting strong underlying momentum in those regions. International adjusted EBITDA grew 13% to $587m.

Guidance Revised Lower

Flutter revised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $18.305bn and adjusted EBITDA of $2.865bn at the midpoint. The prior guidance stood at $18.4bn in revenue and $2.97bn in adjusted EBITDA. The changes incorporate unfavorable Q1 sports results, new Arkansas launch costs of $35m, and a reporting change for PokerStars North America that has no net impact at group level.

Full-year guidance now implies revenue growth of 12% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 1% year-on-year. Prediction markets investment is expected to land toward the top end of the previously guided $250m to $300m EBITDA investment loss range for 2026.

Leadership Changes at FanDuel and Group Level

Flutter announced two leadership changes alongside the Q1 results. Amy Howe departed as CEO of FanDuel; Christian Genetski, previously FanDuel President, takes over the US business. Dan Taylor, previously CEO of Flutter International, has been appointed President of Flutter Entertainment, with oversight of FanDuel added to his existing responsibilities. Flutter also confirmed it has commenced a review of its London Stock Exchange listing.

CEO Peter Jackson commented on the quarter:

“Flutter’s Q1 performance was encouraging, with Group revenue increasing 17% year-on-year. This reflected positive signs from our US sportsbook improvement plan, where performance was ahead of our expectations in March. Group performance also benefited from our local hero acquisitions in Italy and Brazil, and excellent underlying SEA growth. The core fundamentals of our business remain strong, and I am confident that we have the right strategy, structure and global portfolio of local hero brands to capitalize on the significant long-term growth opportunity ahead.”

Analyst Reaction: Buy Ratings Held, Targets Cut

Most sell-side analysts maintained constructive ratings after the Q1 results while reducing their price targets. According to data from AnaChart, 93% of current FLUT ratings are Buy, with the remainder Hold and no active Sell ratings among covering analysts.

Truist analyst Barry Jonas cut the firm’s target to $130 from $140, retaining a Buy. Deutsche Bank’s Richard Stuber reduced his target to $167 from $199, also keeping a Buy. JPMorgan’s Estelle Weingrod cut the London-listed target to 11,500 GBp from 12,700 GBp and kept an Overweight rating. Citizens lowered its target to $165 from $188, maintaining an Outperform.

BNP Paribas initiated coverage on the opposite side, assigning an Underperform rating with an $80 target, citing prediction market operators as a source of meaningful uncertainty for the company’s outlook. BofA kept a Neutral rating, cutting its target to $130 from $140.

The stock has traded around $96, down roughly 58% from its 52-week high of $313.69. The consensus price target across 22 covering analysts sits at approximately $196. Morningstar rates the stock five stars with a fair value estimate of $278, characterising the current price as a significant discount to intrinsic value.

US Sportsbook and Prediction Markets Outlook

Flutter reported limited cannibalization from prediction market operators on FanDuel’s sportsbook activity, estimating a low single-digit percentage effect on handle growth. The company attributed this to differences in product propositions, customer age profiles, and the concentration of prediction market activity among lower-value users.

FanDuel launched its “One App” in April, dynamically delivering sportsbook access in regulated states and prediction market access in non-sportsbook states within a single download. The 2026/2027 NFL season is the stated milestone for full sportsbook recovery, with a complete loyalty program roll-out planned for that window. The FIFA World Cup in Q2 and Q3 is cited as a near-term engagement opportunity. Flutter’s Arkansas state launch, added to guidance at a $35m investment cost, performed ahead of expectations. Caesars Entertainment reported record digital growth in Q4 2025, underlining that US digital market demand remains intact even as individual operators navigate product and competitive headwinds.

Source: Flutter Entertainment plc