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Political Opposition Triggers Delay
The bank’s plans faced sharp criticism in October when Senator Damares Alves condemned the initiative, describing it as a "contradictory, dangerous and profoundly irresponsible move." The senator’s statement sparked broader political debate about whether a state-owned financial institution should operate in the betting sector.
President Lula subsequently requested a meeting with Caixa President Carlos Vieira to discuss the matter. According to local news outlet O Globo, Caixa has now postponed its planned November launch, with no new date announced. The bank declined to comment on the delay when contacted.
Caixa President Carlos Vieira had previously projected the betting operation would generate revenues between BRL2 billion (£371.8 million) and BRL2.5 billion in its first full year of operation in 2026.
Market Analysts Question Government’s Regulatory Approach
LatAm iGaming expert Ramiro Atucha warned that the delayed launch exposes contradictions in Brazil’s regulatory framework, with the government appearing to block Caixa’s entry into a now-legal market.
“With rising taxes, political debate and public backlash, the move risks undermining the regulated market itself. Instead of fostering a sustainable, competitive environment, these actions may end up strengthening the position of unlicensed, offshore operators, precisely the opposite of what regulation is meant to achieve.”
The controversy has also raised questions about government influence in the competitive betting market. Vieira previously described a potential increase in the gambling tax rate from 12% to 18% as "reasonable," contradicting the position held by most regulated operators.
Fabio Ferreira Kujawski, partner at Brazilian law firm Matthos Filho, suggested this stance reflects Caixa’s constrained position as a state-owned entity that "cannot publicly oppose what the federal government is saying."
Debate Over Caixa’s Market Potential
Vieira has stated his ambition for Caixa to become a "major player" in Brazil’s regulated betting market. The bank holds a federal lottery monopoly and benefits from established brand recognition as a trusted state institution.
However, H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin expressed skepticism about Caixa reaching the top tier of the market, despite its existing lottery customer base.
“I do not believe that they will be one of the number one operators. Lotteries have never done particularly well against commercial operators in the online betting and iGaming market.”
Birkin described Vieira’s revenue projections as "highly ambitious," noting that the upper estimate would require Caixa to capture a 7.5% market share according to H2 data. He stated it would be "completely unheard of for a lottery operator to get to a podium position, or even a top five position in a commercial market."
Despite these concerns, Birkin acknowledged that Caixa could operate profitably at a lower market share than commercial competitors. The bank can utilize its existing land-based lottery network, online infrastructure, and potentially its player database, reducing the need for heavy marketing investment.
“In terms of the financials, they can be profitable with a much lower market share than other people in the market. They already have all the land-based network there, they already do have online operations. So it financially makes sense for them. It should very much be additive to their earnings.”
The postponement leaves uncertainty over when—or if—Caixa will enter Brazil’s competitive betting market, which launched regulation at the start of 2025.
Source: iGaming Business
