Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Presidential Tenure Bet

Indonesia’s Communications and Digital Ministry blocked access to Polymarket on May 26 after a prediction market wager on the possible early departure of President Prabowo Subianto from office circulated widely on social media, extending a national crackdown that has now reached approximately 3.4 million blocked websites and digital content items since Prabowo took office in October 2024.

The Wager That Triggered the Block

The market appeared on May 21, one day after Prabowo announced plans to tighten government control over Indonesia’s major commodity exports. The proposal caught investors and traders off guard and, according to local media reports, revived concerns about the credibility and transparency of policy decisions under the former general.

Polymarket promoted the market on X, offering users three possible exit dates: the end of May, June, or December 2026. The December option carried the highest probability at 12%. Total trading volume had exceeded US$44,000 at the time the block was imposed. Prabowo’s term runs to October 2029.

The Ministry’s Position

The Communications and Digital Ministry was clear in its classification. Platforms that allow wagers on specific event outcomes remain gambling under Indonesian law, the ministry said, regardless of how they are described or marketed. The ministry also confirmed it would track and monitor social media accounts promoting Polymarket.

“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” the ministry said.

The scale of the problem the ministry is working against is substantial. Gambling is prohibited nationally, but transactions linked to online betting reached approximately 286 trillion rupiah (US$16 billion) in 2025, according to the Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center. The Polymarket block fits within an enforcement effort that has removed millions of URLs from public access, though the gap between blocked volume and actual market activity makes clear that enforcement alone has not contained the unlicensed sector.

Prediction Markets Under Global Pressure

Indonesia’s action adds to a widening list of jurisdictions that have moved against prediction market platforms. Singapore and Brazil have banned them outright. Taiwan, Thailand, China, and Japan have imposed access restrictions. In India, platforms have continued taking registrations despite regulator warnings that they are operating illegally.

<a href="https://epicwins.io/2026/02/06/australia-classifies-prediction-markets-as-gambling-acma/”>Australia’s ACMA classified prediction markets as gambling in February, while <a href="https://epicwins.io/2026/02/17/new-zealand-declares-prediction-markets-illegal-as-15-online-casino-licences-move-forward/”>New Zealand declared them illegal as it advanced its own online casino licensing programme. In the US, <a href="https://epicwins.io/2026/02/02/nevada-court-restraining-order-against-polymarket-explained/”>a Nevada court issued a restraining order against Polymarket in February over its operation without a state licence.

The US picture is more complicated than a straightforward ban. Last month, an Army special forces master sergeant was charged with using Polymarket to trade on classified information related to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Authorities alleged the bets generated US$400,000, a case that raises questions about how unregulated real-money prediction markets interact with national security considerations.

The Commercial Stakes

The regulatory scrutiny comes as Polymarket’s main US-based competitor, Kalshi, has reported rapid growth. Kalshi’s app downloads surpassed those of DraftKings and FanDuel ahead of Super Bowl LX in February, and the platform reported US$1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume, a 2,700% increase on the previous year. That growth trajectory is precisely what has drawn regulatory attention in markets where gambling laws were not designed with event contract platforms in mind.

The core tension between whether prediction markets are financial instruments or gambling products remains unresolved in most jurisdictions. Indonesia’s position is unambiguous. The resolution elsewhere, including in the US where Polymarket is pursuing CFTC self-certification for new contract types, will define whether the sector can develop a workable regulatory framework or continue accumulating blocks and legal challenges across multiple markets.

Source: Indonesia Communications and Digital Ministry