Kalshi and Polymarket Each Target $20bn in New Fundraising Talks

Kalshi and Polymarket are separately exploring fundraising rounds that would value each platform at around $20 billion — roughly double what either company was worth just a few months ago. The Wall Street Journal reported on 6 March that both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors, though the talks remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuations.

Where the Valuations Stand

Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion in December 2025, after raising $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, the company operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange covering markets on sports, politics, economics, and pop culture. It is the first platform to receive CFTC approval for event-based contracts and has since grown rapidly. Kalshi recently crossed a $1 billion annualised revenue run rate, with some estimates placing that figure closer to $1.5 billion.

Polymarket was last valued at roughly $9 billion in October 2025, after Intercontinental Exchange — owner of the New York Stock Exchange — agreed to invest up to $2 billion. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket currently bars US users but has announced plans to launch a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year. A $20 billion valuation for Polymarket would represent a step-change that reflects either genuine investor conviction or a deliberate push to capitalise on favourable sentiment before the regulatory environment tightens further.

Scrutiny Running in Parallel

The fundraising talks are unfolding alongside a significant escalation in political and regulatory scrutiny in the United States. Senator Chris Murphy alleged that individuals with ties to the White House may have used advance knowledge to place bets on the timing of US and Israeli strikes on Iran via prediction market accounts — pointing at specific Polymarket activity in the hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.

On the legislative side, Representatives Blake Moore and Salud Carbajal have introduced a bill that would restrict prediction markets from offering contracts on topics including war and sports — the exact categories that have driven much of both platforms’ recent growth.

Polymarket has also faced separate insider trading allegations. A group of crypto wallets reportedly made over $1.2 million on a market tied to blockchain investigations into DeFi platform Axiom, placed shortly before researcher ZachXBT published his findings. A separate Polymarket account reportedly earned around $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just before the news broke. Nevada courts have also taken direct action against the platform, issuing a restraining order that restricted its operations in the state.

Scale and Operator Implications

Kalshi reported $1 billion in Super Bowl LX trading volume — up 2,700% year-on-year — a data point that captures how quickly user activity has scaled since the platform began its aggressive growth push. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have been running social media advertising campaigns and campus outreach programmes targeting college communities.

Polymarket’s planned US entry carries implications for licensed sports betting operators. A CFTC-regulated domestic Polymarket would compete directly in a segment where DraftKings and FanDuel have already invested in prediction market capabilities, but under a different regulatory model — commodities exchange rather than state-by-state sports betting licences. Regulators in Australia have already classified prediction markets as gambling, signalling how jurisdictions outside the US are approaching the question of where these products sit legally.

If either platform closes a round at $20 billion, it would cement the prediction markets sector as a top-tier asset class within the broader iGaming and fintech investment landscape — and accelerate pressure on traditional operators to define their own position in the space.

Source: Wall Street Journal