Macau Casino Revenue Forecasts Raised as Market Recovery Gains Momentum

Investment banks have upgraded their revenue projections for Macau’s casino industry, reflecting the gaming hub’s accelerated recovery as performance continues to exceed earlier expectations.

Citigroup Global Markets Asia has raised its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast from 7% growth to 10% year-on-year growth, projecting full-year revenue of MOP248.6 billion ($31.1 billion). The bank also increased its 2026 outlook from 5% to 7%, equivalent to $33.3 billion.

“We are raising our 2025 GGR year-on-year growth forecast from plus 7% to plus 10% — a plus 14% year-on-year growth for the rest of the year.”

Gaming revenue through August reached $20.3 billion, up 7.2% from the same period in 2024. August recorded MOP22.16 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance since January 2020.

Entertainment Strategy Drives Growth

Citigroup analysts noted that high-profile K-pop and entertainment acts have proven successful in Macau, validating the Las Vegas-style entertainment model in the Chinese enclave. Casino operators have successfully converted concert attendees into small and medium-stakes players, while new side bets on baccarat have provided additional revenue streams.

Jefferies Equity Research has also raised its 2025 forecast to MOP248 billion ($31.8 billion), up from an earlier projection of MOP237 billion. Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei attributed the upgrade to high-profile events, newly opened properties, and stronger consumer spending power from stock and cryptocurrency gains.

The analysts project full-year 2025 growth of 9.5%, including 13.8% year-on-year expansion in Q3 and 15.3% in Q4. They anticipate moderate gains of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

“We expect these drivers will continue to fuel GGR growth for the rest of the year.”

Jefferies pointed to the NBA China Games and the Macau Grand Prix as key revenue drivers between September and December.

Currency and Premium Demand Support Outlook

CLSA upgraded its Macau casino forecast to HKD234.8 billion ($30 billion) for 2025, representing 7.6% year-on-year growth compared to its May estimate of just 1.8% growth. CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang identified currency movements as a significant factor, with the renminbi strengthening against the U.S. dollar providing Chinese tourists with increased purchasing power.

“The opening of certain new premium properties on Cotai also underpins the strength of the gaming industry.”

Macau recorded 19% year-on-year growth in gaming revenue in June, demonstrating accelerated recovery momentum. The majority of Macau casino bets are placed in Hong Kong dollars, which are pegged to the U.S. dollar, making currency fluctuations particularly significant for visitor spending capacity.

UBS has also lifted its 2026 GGR outlook, pointing to firm premium demand and new upscale suites and amenities that support mass-market momentum. The bank raised its 2026 forecast based on premium-led recovery trends across major operators.

Operator Performance and Market Share Shifts

Jefferies analysts predict that Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group will capture additional market share through stronger promotional strategies and reinvestment initiatives. MGM China and Wynn Macau are expected to maintain stable positions, while SJM Holdings may continue losing ground due to satellite casino closures and a slower ramp-up at Grand Lisboa Palace.

UBS raised Wynn Resorts’ 2026 Macau revenue estimate by 3% to $3.99 billion, noting the operator’s strong alignment with premium mass demand. The bank increased Las Vegas Sands’ 2026 forecast by 4% to $8.07 billion, with EBITDA estimates rising 1% to $2.63 billion.

The market recovery has been supported by Macau’s transition from VIP junket-dependent operations to premium mass and mass-market segments following Beijing’s crackdown on money movement from mainland China. The shift has proven sustainable as operators invest in entertainment, dining, and non-gaming attractions that appeal to broader visitor demographics.

With cumulative GGR through August reaching MOP163.05 billion and daily run rates consistently exceeding MOP700 million, analysts expect the fourth quarter to maintain recovery momentum supported by major events and holiday periods.

Source: Gambling Insider